Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow at the start of September, and by the end of the day, only 300 million sat outside new time locks.
XRP price still holds near $1.40. The headline sounded bearish. The ledger says less happened than it looked.
Ripple Released a Billion, Then Re-Locked 700 Million
Three old escrows ended, releasing 500 million, 400 million, and 100 million XRP. Hours later, two new escrows took 500 million and 200 million back.
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Ripple Escrow Release Versus Relock: BeInCrypto
That leaves 300 million XRP, worth about $422 million, outside those locks. It moved between Ripple-labelled wallets, so the monthly release is not a sale or an exchange deposit. But it matters anyway.
It still matters because the market could not take it. Buy orders sitting close to the current price add up to $108.2 million, so those 300 million coins are worth almost four times what buyers are ready to absorb.
XRP Near-Price Buying Depth: Charlie Quant Lab
The market held only because nobody tested it.
Older Coins Stopped Moving. So Did the Volume.
So the coins are still there. The question is who is willing to move them, and the answer is almost nobody.
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XRPs 1-2 year holding band rose from 17.3% of supply in late August to about 18.2% now. Therefore, the oldest supply is refusing to move, and despite the pullback since August 22, those holders have not sold into it.
XRP HODL Waves 1-2 Year Band: Glassnode
That stillness cuts both ways. Daily volume (all traders) has fallen every session since the August 22 burst, down to about 27.6 million XRP. So the interest seems very ‘long-term-holder-specific’.
XRP Price Volume and EMAs: TradingView
Meanwhile, the chart is close to a golden cross, the point where the 20-day exponential moving average, an average of closing prices that leans on the most recent days, climbs above the slower 200-day line. The fast line sits at $1.3516 against $1.3540, close enough to cross on any decent day. Crossovers built on falling volume are the ones that fail.
XRP Led the Rally, Then Stopped Leading
Fading volume shows up as lost leadership. Over 21 sessions, XRP gained 42.4% against 27.0% for Bitcoin and 33.8% for Ethereum.
XRP Versus Bitcoin and Ethereum: Charlie Quant Lab
Over the last 14 days, it was the weakest of 20 large coins against that pair, trailing by 5.7%.
XRP Short-Term Relative Strength: Charlie Quant Lab
Futures repeat the pattern. Count the accounts and big traders look confident, 2.86 betting on a rise for every one betting on a fall, against 2.46 for ordinary traders.
XRP Longs by Count Versus Size: BeInCrypto
Weigh those bets by money, and it flips. By size, the ratio drops to 2.09, below the crowds count. Most large accounts sit on the bullish side without putting much behind it, and their shorts are the bigger trades.
Funding Gap Turns Negative: Charlie Quant Lab
XRP is one of four majors where that gap runs negative.
XRP Price Levels That Decide It
All of it comes down to one line. XRP trades at $1.4079, above both averages, which keeps the recovery alive. Confirmation sits at $1.4785, about 5% up, the level that has capped every rebound since late August.
Clearing it opens $1.5832, then the $1.6678 to $1.7038 area around the August peak, a 21% move from here. A daily close below $1.3092 breaks the setup.
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView