What could XRP price rise to if XRP acts as the liquidity rail for the carbon market once tokenization dominates the scene？
The carbon market is on a massive growth path, with forecasts pointing to trillions of dollars in value over the next decade. Specifically, a Precedence Research report predicted that the carbon credit sector could jump from about $933 billion in 2025 to more than $16 trillion by 2034, which means nearly 38% yearly growth.
The Carbon Markets Impressive Growth
Meanwhile, other research shows the carbon offsets segment, worth about $1.06 trillion in 2023, could climb past $3 trillion by 2032.
If this happens, digital assets with strong liquidity functions could have an important role to play. Interestingly, XRP often comes up in this discussion because it can move value instantly across borders at low cost, making it a natural option as a liquidity rail for tokenized carbon credits.
Notably, the XRP Ledger itself is carbon neutral, bolstering its chances. However, what this role would mean for XRPs price remains uncertain. As a result, we asked Google Gemini for a hypothetical view.
XRP Price if It Serves as Liquidity Rail for the Carbon Market
In response, Gemini noted that XRPs value should not rely on traditional market cap math. Instead, its worth depends on how much money it moves through its network.
Gemini compared this to a toll road. Notably, the roads importance comes from the goods and services traveling across it every day, not just the asphalt for building it. For perspective, the higher the value of goods and the heavier the traffic, the more valuable the road becomes.
XRP Valuation Calculation | Google Gemini
Gemini applied this logic to the carbon credit market, which could reach $16.38 trillion by 2034. If XRP captured only 0.5% of this markets transaction flow, it would move around $81.9 billion in value.
To handle that scale smoothly, XRPs price would need to rise enough to provide the liquidity needed while avoiding volatility. According to Gemini, the price could surge to as high as $100, with some analysts pointing to $1,000.
XRP Price if It Powers Carbon Market Trades | Google Gemini
Nonetheless, Gemini clarified that this scenario is not a prediction but an illustration. The point is that once XRP takes on large-scale utility, its valuation changes from being a static crypto asset to an essential financial tool. In such a case, its price could reach levels that look impossible under todays models.
Still, Gemini also highlighted challenges. For one, other blockchains or even traditional finance systems could compete for the same role. In addition, regulations in different countries remain uncertain and could slow adoption. The timeline for tokenizing carbon credits is also unclear. Moreover, Ripples own push into the carbon market matters too.