Monero (XMR) futures open interest stands near $287 million, according to CoinGlass, and trader Doctor Profit warns that this leverage could trigger a large XMR liquidation event. He ties the setup to January, when a similar build-up preceded a steep crash.
The data only partly backs his call. In dollar terms, current open interest trails two earlier peaks, although traders now hold more XMR in open contracts than in January.
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Is Monero Open Interest Really at a Record？
Open interest tracks the total value of futures and perpetual contracts that remain open. Higher readings mean more borrowed money sits in the market, ready to be forced out.
Doctor Profit framed the current level as a historic extreme in a post on X.
However, the CoinGlass chart he shared shows a different sequence. Open interest spiked near $305 million in mid-January, then topped $320 million between late August and September.
At roughly $287 million today, the reading sits below both peaks. Dollar-based open interest also rises automatically as price climbs.
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Adjusted for price, current positions equal about 496,000 XMR. That exceeds the roughly 400,000 XMR open at Januarys peak, but trails the September high.
Does January‘s Crash Map Onto Today’s Setup？
CoinGecko data shows XMR jumped from about $459 on January 10 to nearly $783 on January 14. That 70% surge in four days drove the open interest spike.
The unwind was brutal. XMR slid to around $286 by February 6, about 63% below the top, 23 days later.
The structure also differs. Januarys leverage piled in during a vertical squeeze, while the current advance has been gradual, from about $378 in early August to $605 on October 20.
Meanwhile, forced selling remains light. CoinGlass recorded only about $338,000 in XMR futures liquidations over the past 24 hours.
At press time, XMR traded at $578, down 4.3% in 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto data.
Will a Double Top Confirm the Liquidation Thesis？
The daily XMRUSDT perpetual chart on Binance shows a potential double top. The first peak printed near $636 in late September, and the second near $628 on October 20.
Both highs were rejected with long upper wicks. Volume on the second peak also ran lighter than on the first, a sign of fading buyer conviction.
XMR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
The neckline sits at $514.13, which held as support on October 10. The pattern stays unconfirmed until a daily close below it, about 11% under the current price.
The patterns depth projects a measured target at $421.65, former resistance from May and June. That area is now expected to act as a support.
A clean move back above $636 would invalidate the setup. Yet a neckline break with this much leverage open is where a long squeeze cascade could begin. Until then, the warning reads as a credible risk flag, not a confirmed signal.