In a recent development, Grayscale Research thinks that Aave [$AAVE] might be undervalued right now. According to Grayscale Researchs conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the token is worth its current value.
Grayscale believes the protocol will make about $60 million in 2026, despite recent challenges in the larger cryptocurrency space.
Grayscale projects $AAVE to reach $175
The asset manager also believes that fintech multiples of 20x-25x would push a current fair value market cap of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, or a token price of about $80 to $100 as comapred to $75 at press time.
Source: Grayscale
Grayscale added,
In a base case scenario in which regulatory clarity accelerates adoption of tokenized assets, we believe $AAVE token fair value could rise to ~$175 in one year.
Source: Grayscale
Nevertheless, despite its clear tokenomics and dominance over several crypto cycles, Aave is not impervious to wider ecosystem threats. Although not a direct attack on Aave, the Kelp DAO rsETH exploit in April 2026 caused downstream market disruption that decreased protocol activity.
Although the situation was promptly resolved and the funds remained safe, the effects are still felt. Currently, token buybacks are on hold while the governance review is conducted and the total value locked (TVL) is significantly reduced from $45 billion in 2025 to $13.043 billion at the time of publishing.
Source: DeFiLlama
However, to assess, monitor, and manage risk across the protocol, Stani Kulechov, the founder of Aave, has presented a new risk framework.
On what grounds is Grayscale so optimistic？
For its part, the Aave decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) also distinguishes itself from rivals by funding important expansion projects with a sizable, diverse balance sheet that is overseen by token holder governance.
As a result, the DAO treasury reached a peak of over $360 million, primarily as a result of protocol revenue collections and $AAVE appreciation. In addition, users now have more than $50 million in outstanding loans on the protocol, as Aave V4 has surpassed $50 million in active borrows.
Source: X
With a 140% increase in the last month, the number indicates that demand and user activity for Aaves most recent version are growing quickly.
$AAVEs price prediction and more
At the same time, $AAVE was down by more than 71% over the previous year. Although the RSI and MACD both displayed more bullish momentum, there are still worries because the MACD line is below the neutral line.
Source: Trading View
Additionally, $AAVEs 90-day Spot Taker CVD was flashing green bars in June 2026, suggesting that market purchases were still outpacing sales.
Source: CryptoQuant
Nonetheless, the green bars height gradually decreased, indicating that although buyers maintained control, their vigor was waning and the bullish momentum was eroding.
Overall, this suggests that rather than a clear bearish pressure, demand is slowing, which suggests that unless new buying activity appears, $AAVE may be about to enter a consolidation phase.
Final Summary
- Grayscale suggests that the price of Aave should be about $80 to $100 as compared to $75 at press time.
- The KelpDAO exploit casued rge TVL of Aave to drop from $45 billion in 2025 to $13.043 billion at the time of publishing.