Will history repeat in August with another leg down？
Although it was stopped at its monthly peak of $67,000 earlier this week, July has gone quite favorably for the primary cryptocurrency for now, showing a double-digit surge from its early low of under $58,000 to roughly $65,000 as of press time.
However, popular analyst Ali Martinez brought up a painful historical pattern suggesting that the bears are about to return in August.
Good July, Bad August？
We know that historical performance rarely translates into successful price predictions. However, BTCs moves in July have largely aligned with almost all previous Julys. As such, the warning from Martinez should be taken under careful consideration. The analyst noted that investors should “enjoy the current rally,” but stop and take a look at the seasonal trend.
He added that every single August since 2022 has been in the red, which is confirmed by data from CoinGlass. This streak of four consecutive Augusts with retracements brought some violent declines, such as the 14% drop in 2022 and the 11.3% dip a year later.
If we go back further in history, though, we can see that there have been some quite promising exceptions during the eighth month of the year. Back in 2013, BTC rose by 30%, while the 2017 edition brought a massive 65% surge. However, only three out of the last 12 Augusts have been in the green.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlassWeakening Support
Fellow analyst Rekt Capital also weighed in on BTC‘s performance in July but outlined a different perspective. He acknowledged that the cryptocurrency has risen by double digits (even though his percentage differs from the one on CoinGlass), but argued that it’s a “far cry from previous rebounds.”
This is because even though bitcoin has defended the $60,000 support and now sits at around $65,000, the double-digit price pump in July came after a significantly more painful June, in which the asset tumbled by more than 20%. Consequently, the 11%-14% surge now can‘t even offset the previous month’s losses. The analyst determined that this is a clear sign of “progressively weakening support over time.”
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The upcoming Monthly Candle Close is slowly approaching
And as things stand Bitcoin has only rallied +14.5% from the ~$60k historical demand area