Two independent analysts have concluded that the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom is in, and neither used the others data. Charles Edwards tracks stablecoin liquidity, while the analyst known as Root tracks cycle structure.
Both calls arrived within days of each other in early September. Neither analyst predicted a bull run, however. Both argued something narrower, that the conditions defining a bear market have stopped being present.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Caprioles Hedge Ratio Hit Its Bullish Threshold
Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, published his signal on Sept. 4. His Market Hedge Ratio measures the USDT/BTC market cap ratio over a rolling 30 days.
The reading fell to -20.42%, touching the -20.78% threshold marked on his chart. A falling ratio indicates capital rotating out of stablecoins and into Bitcoin.
Capriole Market Hedge Ratio weekly chart showing the Bitcoin bottom signal Source: Capriole
His chart marks roughly nine comparable signals since January 2020. Most preceded rallies, though one signal in October 2021 landed close to a cycle top.
“It‘s very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole’s Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
Sponsored
Sponsored
Edwards set an explicit invalidation, however. The signal holds only until the ratio flips red, and his stated horizon runs weeks rather than months.
Roots Breakout Arrived 2 Months Early
Root, who publishes at Bitcoin Strategy, reached the same conclusion from price structure alone. His chart tracks the moment price reclaims the 200-day average, the 21-week average, and the short-term holder cost basis.
Root breakout chart comparing Bitcoin bottom timing across cycles Source: Bitcoinstrategyplatform
Previous breakouts sat 1,375 days and 1,384 days apart, a gap of only nine days across roughly 7.5 years. The current breakout arrived 1,314 days after the 2023 signal, therefore about 65 days ahead of that rhythm.
“The current breakout happened roughly two months ahead of schedule compared to previous cycles. While two months is still substantial, and a reason why we cant entirely rule out a continuation of the bear market…”
That timing cuts both ways. Root notes the four-year cycle placed this bottom four months early. The breakout, therefore, deviates considerably less than the low did.
BTC Sits Just 0.5% Above the Line That Matters
Bitcoin traded at $79,755 at the time of writing, down 0.23% over 24 hours. Market cap sits near $1.6 trillion. Price holds above all three levels, though barely.
The 21-week average stands at $79,355, leaving a cushion of 0.5%. Beneath it, the short-term holder cost basis sits at $70,853 and the 200-day average at $69,785.
Those two levels sit around $1,000 apart, forming a support shelf near $70,000. Grayscale placed its own bottom estimate in that same zone.
A weekly close beneath that shelf would break both thesis at once. Holding $79,355 keeps them alive.
The two calls agree on direction and share almost nothing else. Edwards measures weeks, whereas Root measures a cycle. Both published the level that would prove them wrong.