XRP (XRP) withdrawals now outnumber deposits on crypto exchanges, nearing their August levels. Meanwhile, the tokens risk-adjusted returns on Binance have sunk to a four-month low.
Both readings come two days before the Federal Reserve‘s October 28 rate decision. The Fed’s guidance may decide which of the two signals traders act on.
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XRP Withdrawals Crowd Out Deposits on Exchanges
The first signal comes from exchange transaction counts. Analyst Amr Taha reported that withdrawals made up 55.75% of Binances 7-day XRP deposit and withdrawal transactions on October 25.
Across all centralized exchanges, the withdrawal share reached 54.85%. Both readings sit within 1 percentage point of their August 18 levels. Deposit shares fell to 44.25% on Binance and 45.15% across all exchanges.
However, the metric counts transactions, not XRP volume. A withdrawal-heavy mix shows more transfers leaving exchanges, not necessarily more tokens.
XRP deposit and withdrawal transaction share on Binance and all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Binance also stands apart on the size of those withdrawals. Its seven-day whale-versus-retail outflow spread read 49.5% on October 26, compared with 29.7% across all exchanges. That 19.8-point gap was just 2.5 points on July 28.
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Value data adds a complication. Large holders recently sent $112.4 million worth of XRP to Binance, the most in seven months, BeInCrypto reported. Big players therefore appear active in both directions on Binance. The flows alone cannot confirm that exchange supply is tightening.
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Weak Returns Leave XRP Leaning on Fed Guidance
That uncertainty matters because XRP‘s returns have lagged its swings. Binance’s XRP Sharpe-like ratio fell to about -0.2641, its lowest level in four months, per Arab Chain.
“The decline in Binances XRP Sharpe-like Ratio points to worsening risk-adjusted returns, suggesting that the returns generated during the measured period have become less attractive relative to the level of risk and volatility involved,” the analyst wrote.
Binance XRP Sharpe-like ratio at four-month low. Source: CryptoQuant
XRP trades at $1.29, down 1.68% over the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets. With returns already weak, the token now faces its next macro test on October 28.
XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
That test comes from a Fed in tightening mode. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first hike since July 2023.
Traders expect a pause this week before another move. CME FedWatch prices a 90.6% chance of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. The same tool puts the odds of a December hike at 79.7%.
With a hold largely priced in, the Feds December signal may matter more for XRP than the decision itself. Firm hints at another hike could weigh further on risk appetite. A softer tone could give the withdrawal trend room to reach the price.
Still, neither metric forecasts direction. A four-month low in the Sharpe-like ratio does not mean XRP must keep falling. Transaction counts also cannot confirm that supply is leaving exchanges.