Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit, but onchain data suggests its too early to confirm a new bull market.
Key points:
- Bitcoin supply profitability is improving, but the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery, says CryptoQuant.
- Supply in profit is now approaching 60%, up from its 2026 low near 46% less than a month ago.
- Long-term holder onchain losses continue to dominate — a caveat in a bullish recovery.
Bitcoin profit metrics risk second false breakout
According to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply in profit rebounded above the 50% mark in July.
“Bitcoins Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low,” CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN summarized.
With nearly 60% of the BTC supply now in profit, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs) is also improving.
LTHs are entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months. SOPR measures the proportion of LTH coins moving onchain at a higher price relative to their previous transaction. Values above 1 indicate coins moving onchain mostly in profit, while values below 1 indicate LTH investors are moving coins at a loss, potentially indicating capitulatory activity.
ThechessONCHAIN explained that previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements.
The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR should remain above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%.
“This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over,” TheChessOnChain noted.
Since then, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days.
BTC investment recovery stays fragile
As Cointelegraph reported earlier, Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June, a threshold that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.
Related: Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market: Bitwise exec
Here, too, the data reveals similarities among Bitcoin bear markets, with the 50% loss mark sparking the final countdown to a BTC price cycle bottom in previous years.
Demand, meanwhile, appears mixed, with weak spot-market interest meeting a rebound in institutional BTC allocation.