The leading cryptocurrency has been squeezed into a narrow range around $63,700, while the Bollinger Band Width indicator on the daily chart has contracted to its lowest level since October 2023, pinching the price action into an extreme technical threshold.
In traders' language, this condition is called a “squeeze” — a phase of extremely low volatility that has historically been followed by a powerful price explosion.
Bitcoin price chart since 2023 in context of Bollinger Bands Width indicator, Source: Barchart
The current chart by Barchart draws a direct parallel with the events of three years ago. In the fall of 2023, an identical narrowing of the Bollinger Bands triggered a massive two-year rally. Bitcoin started at levels slightly above $20,000 and ultimately gained more than 330%, reaching a peak above $130,000 by mid-2025.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Fed factor: How July's CPI report changes the math for Bitcoin's next move
Now the historical spring has once again been compressed to its limit, and the market has finally received a powerful external catalyst. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, released today, came in line with market expectations.
As observers note, the report reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve and gives officials room to keep interest rates unchanged at their September meeting. Fed officials emphasize that current rates are already restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target without further increases.
However, market participants remain divided, as persistent tariffs, pressure from energy prices, and massive demand for technology equipment driven by the artificial intelligence boom complicate the long-term outlook.
Optimists expect a Fed pause to trigger a repeat of Bitcoin's bullish fractal, while skeptics warn that macroeconomic risks could still reverse this volatile impulse to the downside, potentially forcing a retest of the price floor set on July 1 at $57,800.
Bitcoin Price Analysis