This Week‘s Plot: BTC’s Three-Week Winning Streak Ends
From September 7 to 11, BTC fell about 4% for the week and is now trading around $77,197, briefly dropping below $77,000. ETH has been relatively resilient, currently around $2,468, down roughly 2% for the week. There are three main culprits:
- PPI came in hotter than expected: U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year over year, while energy prices jumped 4.2% month over month and diesel prices surged 24.1%. After the data was released, BTC plunged from above $79,000, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 4.95%.
- The Middle East added fuel to the fire: The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated, pushing oil above $100, with Brent crude briefly approaching $109. Gold surged toward $5,000, but instead of flowing into BTC, safe-haven capital was scared away by renewed inflation expectations.
- Leveraged longs were liquidated: The entire crypto market saw approximately $452 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 76.76%.
Bulls vs. Bears: On-Chain Data Warm, Macro Signals Cold
The on-chain temperature is cooling. Glassnode data shows the 7-day seller risk ratio for BTC has fallen to around 7 basis points per day, less than half the August high of 16 bps. The share of profit-taking by long-term holders has also fallen from 88% to 47%.
Translation: Most of the investors who wanted to sell may have already sold.
But there is a major “bagholder mountain” overhead. Approximately 1.07 million BTC were acquired in the $83,000–$86,000 range, creating a major resistance ceiling. BTC reserves on exchanges also remain elevated, with Binance holding around 685,000 BTC, meaning potential selling pressure has not disappeared.
Whales Are Quietly Buying the Dip
One whale previously liquidated 50,600 ETH last year for a profit of $19.02 million. After eight months of inactivity, the whale recently swapped $14.2 million USDC for 179.8 BTC at an average price of approximately $78,955, while still holding $74.32 million USDC for further purchases.
Another large ETH holder spent $4.82 million USDT to buy 1,951 ETH at an average price of approximately $2,469.6.
Smart money is putting capital to work at lower levels.
Institutions Are Divided
BTC ETFs recorded consecutive net outflows from September 8 to 10, totaling approximately $450 million. ETH ETFs, however, moved in the opposite direction, attracting $34.75 million in net inflows on September 9, driven by BlackRocks staking-related product.
Institutional ownership of U.S. spot BTC ETFs has reached a record 44.2%. Long-term institutional allocation appetite therefore remains intact.
The Macro Referee Has Yet to Blow the Whistle
Markets are pricing in a 71.3% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. CPI and the FOMC are the key macro bombs from this week into next week.
Wallers hawkish stance has reinforced the consensus that 2% inflation remains a hard target. For now, the base case is for rates to move higher rather than lower.
Technical Picture
- BTC support: $76,200
- BTC resistance: $80,000
- ETH support: $2,370
- ETH resistance: $2,530
Interestingly, the liquidation zone around $76,000 is denser than the one around $83,000, potentially acting like a magnet that pulls prices lower.
The Big Picture: Bearish Short Term, Bullish Medium Term
Short Term — 1–2 Weeks: Bearish
Four major pressures are weighing on the market:
High rate-hike odds + oil above $100 + Treasury yields approaching 5% + ETF outflows.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected or the Fed delivers a rate hike, BTC could fall toward $74,000 or even $70,000.
If CPI comes in below expectations or the Fed stays on hold, BTC could have a chance to recover toward $79,000–$80,000.
Medium Term — 2–3 Months: Bullish
The medium-term setup remains more constructive:
- On-chain selling pressure is weakening.
- Whales are accumulating BTC around $78,000–$79,000.
- ETH staking ETFs are attracting capital.
- Institutions may view the pullback as a portfolio-allocation opportunity.
Once the rate hike is fully priced in, the market could experience a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” rebound.
However, if BTC subsequently breaks below $68,000, the priority should shift back toward the possibility of another major bottoming process.
Risk-Reward Ranking
Short term: Shorting BTC on rebounds > Shorting ETH on rebounds
Medium to long term: Buying ETH at lower levels may offer slightly better risk-reward than BTC, mainly because of staking-related supply lockups and ETH ETF inflows moving against the broader market trend.
Watch Out for a Sharp Short-Term Pullback
After yesterdays PPI release, the market experienced a broad sell-off.
But interestingly, the long/short ratio did not fall. Instead, it climbed from 1.05 a week ago to 1.33.
In other words, liquidated long positions were quickly replaced by new leveraged longs. Bulls have not truly surrendered.
That matches the feeling I described in yesterdays post.
This type of “the more liquidations, the more leverage gets added” structure often means the liquidation process may not be over yet.
Tonights CPI Is the Biggest Short-Term Risk
The CPI data is due at 8:30 PM tonight.
There is currently a very high probability of a bearish market reaction. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, a sharp sell-off could arrive at any time. If that happens, BTC could potentially experience another significant leg lower next Monday.
This is currently the biggest risk facing the market.
Three Things to Watch
Right now, traders should keep their eyes firmly on three variables:
1. CPI
- Lower than expected → BTC rebound
- Higher than expected → renewed selling pressure
2. FOMC
- Rate hike delivered → potentially “priced-in” bearishness and a relief rally afterward
- More hawkish guidance → continued pressure on risk assets
3. Middle East ceasefire signals
- Ceasefire → oil prices fall → inflation expectations ease → risk assets get room to breathe
The market is now caught between macro inflation pressure and crypto-native accumulation.
The next move may ultimately come down to one question:
Will CPI give BTC a chance to defend $76,000, or will macro pressure force another wave of liquidation？
