Legendary futures trader and head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt has opened a long position in Bitcoin, completely reversing his previous market outlook. The change in his trading strategy was prompted by a decisive technical breakout from a rare chart pattern that pulled the cryptocurrency out of a prolonged downtrend.
Recently, falling prices had dominated the market, and Brandt openly admitted that “there was a reason to have expected a downside move in Bitcoin.”
Because of the prolonged formation of the right shoulder, the trader believed that the chart pattern “has a 60/40 chance to be resolved to the downside,” especially considering that the broader “trend was down.”
Daily CME Bitcoin futures chart showing an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout to $72,330. Source: Peter Brandt / TradeNavigator
However, this week's price action completely invalidated the bearish scenario. A period of local calm gave way to a powerful impulse: Bitcoin moved above resistance near $64,000, established solid support and ended a multiweek consolidation with a decisive breakout.
As a result, on the daily chart of CME Bitcoin futures (BTC-056 contract), the price broke above the key neckline of the inverted head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The completion of this pattern, which has been rare in the current market cycle, triggered a strong price acceleration.
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During today's trading session, the futures contract reached approximately $72,335, posting a net daily gain of $2,585.
Why the Wall Street veteran did not argue with Bitcoin's chart
Brandt stated that “the completion of the H&S bottom changed that.” Instead of trying to argue with the market, the veteran futures trader made a systematic decision, stating simply: “I bought the breakout for better or worse.”
This 180-degree reversal drew criticism on social media from market participants who called the 60/40 mathematical model ineffective when applied to a single trade.
Responding to the criticism, Brandt referred to the law of large numbers in risk management. He emphasized that a small statistical edge may appear insignificant in one isolated trade, but across a large sample of trades, it is precisely what creates a consistently positive expectancy for a trading system.