United Overseas Banks (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees EUR/USD consolidating with a slight downside bias intraday, expecting moves within 1.1405–1.1450. Over 1–3 weeks, the Euro is still viewed with an upside bias as long as 1.1405 holds, though momentum toward 1.1520 remains uncertain. On a multi-week horizon, a break below 1.1390/1.1410 would target 1.1210.
Euro holds range with mild upside risk
“24-HOUR VIEW: When EUR was at 1.1445 last Friday, we stated that ”the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.1420 and 1.1465.“ Our view of consolidation was not wrong, even though EUR traded within a narrower range than expected (1.1424/1.1452). EUR traded on a soft note after opening today, but the slight increase in downward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a continued decline. Overall, EUR could edge lower today, but any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1405/1.1450 range.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Thursday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1470), we highlighted that while EUR ”is likely to trade with an upside bias, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520.“ We added, ”a breach of 1.1405 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR has reverted to a range-trading phase.“ EUR has not been able to make any headway on the upside, but we will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.1405 is not clearly breached.”