“Large Bitcoin whales have been building up their positions over the last two months, while medium-sized wallets have been selling. This divergence in behaviour could be a ‘constructive signal’ for BTC in the medium term, according to CryptoQuant [data],” Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.
Blockchain analysis firm Glassnode noted that the market looks much more balanced now than it did a month ago.
“Overall, the market appears increasingly balanced, with long-term conviction providing support while speculative participation remains contained,” it said.
There are also signs of growing participation in BTC futures and options. Recently, a trader (or group of traders) purchased large bull call spreads in bitcoin, targeting $72,000 by month-end.
In short, the buyer profile right now appears diverse
Risks, however, remain. The most important near-term headwind is U.S. Treasury bond issuances, which could drain liquidity from the system and weigh on risk assets.
“Treasury bill settlements are expected to result in net new issuance of $56 billion, followed by an additional $37 billion on Thursday and a smaller coupon settlement of $13 billion on Friday. Treasury bill issuance will likely remain heavy until Labor Day, creating a headwind for risk assets as we move through the summer,” Mott Capital Managements Founder Michael Kramer said in a blog post.