Key Takeaways
- Kalshis 2026 bitcoin market prices a $97K peak, with about $4.8M traded across seven price strikes.
- Odds of BTC touching $90,000 in September fell from 44% to 39% within 24 hours since yesterday.
- U.S. bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.7B across Sept. 21 and 22, the flows backing longer-dated bets.
The Number on the Screen
Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated prediction market where traders buy contracts that pay $1 if an event happens, runs a contract series titled “How high will Bitcoin get in 2026？” Its headline forecast climbed to $97,000 earlier today, up about $1,570, with the “above $99,999.99” contract sitting at 45 cents.
A contracts price works as a rough probability and as of the morning of Sept. 23, the $100,000 strike traded at 46 cents, up from 44 cents a day earlier, and it has drawn nearly $1.49 million in volume on its own. The full seven-strike market has cleared about $4.8 million.
The contract resolves “yes” if the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index prints above $99,999.99 at any point between Jan. 2 and Dec. 31, 2026. A single touch counts, and bitcoin has not traded at six figures since November 2025, as Bitcoin.com News noted on Tuesday.
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How Steep Is the Ladder？
The yearly market is really a ladder of separate bets, and the steps get steep fast above $100,000:
- Above $110,000: 26 cents
- Above $120,000: 16 cents
- Above $130,000: 10 cents
- Above $140,000 and $150,000: 6 cents each
- Above $200,000: 2 cents, down from 4 cents
Put another way, the crowd treats a return to six figures as close to a coin flip but sees a push to a fresh record as a long shot. That fits the cycle view Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju laid out this week, when he said he expects a 3-5x run rather than another parabolic surge.
Daniel Hinton, head of capital markets at UTXO Management, sees bitcoin “around the mid-90s and low $100,000” within three to six months, which lands close to Kalshis $97,000 midpoint.
September Tells a Cooler Story
The short-dated contracts are moving the other way because a few hours ago, Pete Rizzo posted on X that the odds of bitcoin rising above $90,000 this month had hit a one-week high. A few hours later, that September contract traded at 38 cents, down from 44 cents 24 hours earlier.
The rest of the monthly ladder slipped too, with the $87,500 strike falling from 71 cents to 64 cents, and the $92,500 strike dropping from 23 cents to 18 cents. The $87,500 contract is still open, which means the settlement index has not printed above that level this month.
That pullback came after a hot few days as Bitcoin.com News reported the fear of missing out (FOMO) index hit a near two-year high after roughly $648 million in short positions were liquidated.
What Is Holding the Longer Bets up？
From the outside looking in, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows seem to be doing most of the work, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulling in $998.95 million on Monday, their largest day of 2026, led by Blackrocks IBIT. On Tuesday, they added another $714.75 million, bringing the two-session total to about $1.7 billion.
Options traders are also hedging their optimism given that one buyer paid $3.17 million for a structure that pays most at $95,000 on Oct. 30 and loses its premium if bitcoins price settles at or above $100,000.